[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained around 300 km/s until approximately 
11UT, then increased gradually to between 320 and 340 km/s by 
the end of the UT day. Likewise, temperature increased gradually 
from 11UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained close to 0 until around 11UT, and exhibited 
occasional southwards excursions thereafter. A CME was observed 
from the NE limb at 17/2030UT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1000 1222
      Darwin               2   1000 12-2
      Townsville           2   1000 1223
      Learmonth            2   1000 1222
      Culgoora             2   0000 1222
      Canberra             2   0000 1222
      Hobart               2   1000 1221
      Casey(Ant)           4   2210 1223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3   0111 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
20 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Oct     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: No effect is forecast from the CME that occurred at 
17/2030UT. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct    45    minor enhancements during the local day, near 
                predicted monthly values thereafter. 
20 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
21 Oct    35    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    18700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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