[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually decreased over the the 
past 24 hours, finishing the day at approximately 290 km/s. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
remained close to 0 for most of the day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0001
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           1   1100 1003
      Learmonth            0   1100 0000
      Culgoora             0   0001 0002
      Canberra             0   0000 000-
      Hobart               0   0110 0001
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 0010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   3111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
19 Oct    12    Mostl quiet to unsettled, with isolated active 
                levels possible. 
20 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible 19 October due to a 
coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      during local day, depressed by 25% 
      during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
19 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
20 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    31300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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