[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 8 09:18:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low over the last
24 hours. No significant activity was recorded. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 300km/s to 275km/s
(approx.) by 1900 UT and then increased to 285 km/s by the
time of this report. The north south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value throughout the UT day.
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 1110 2001
Darwin 2 1110 1112
Townsville 1 1010 2002
Learmonth 0 1000 1002
Culgoora 1 0000 2002
Canberra 1 0000 2000
Hobart 1 0110 2001
Casey(Ant) 5 2321 1000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in all regions during the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 62 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 62 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 62 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next few days in all Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 32500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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