[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low over the last 
24 hours. No significant activity was recorded. The solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 300km/s to 275km/s 
(approx.) by 1900 UT and then increased to 285 km/s by the 
time of this report. The north south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations 
on both sides of the normal value throughout the UT day. 
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low 
levels during the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 2001
      Darwin               2   1110 1112
      Townsville           1   1010 2002
      Learmonth            0   1000 1002
      Culgoora             1   0000 2002
      Canberra             1   0000 2000
      Hobart               1   0110 2001
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 1000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     5    Quiet 
09 Oct     5    Quiet 
10 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in all regions during the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Oct    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    62    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    62    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    62    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next few days in all Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    32500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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