[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 9 09:38:10 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low during the
last 24 hours. No significant activity has been recorded
during this period. The solar wind speed gradually increased
from 280km/s to 380km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained slightly negative until 0600UT (approx.) and
then showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value during the rest of the day. The solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels during the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 1112 2312
Darwin 7 1212 3312
Townsville 4 1112 2212
Learmonth 6 0112 3312
Culgoora 5 1111 2323
Canberra 6 0112 2322
Hobart 5 0112 2312
Casey(Ant) 9 13-3 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 6 Quiet
10 Oct 6 Quiet
11 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next two days. Unsettled
periods may by observed on 11 October as a coronal hole is
expected to take a geo-effective position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in all regions during the next three days. However,
some periods of minor depressions and degradations may be
possible on 11 October, especially on high latitudes, due
to a possible rise in the geomagnetic activity on that day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by upto 65% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 62 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 62 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next three days in most Aus/NZ regions.
However, minor depressions in MUFs may be observed in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions on 11 October due to a possible
rise in the geomagnetic activity on that day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 287 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 11500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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