[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
The only significant activity, that was observed today, 
was a C2.5 flare at 1834UT. The solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 350km/s to 300km/s (approx.) over the UT day. 
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained slightly negative almost the whole day. 
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low 
levels during the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1111 0001
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           2   1-11 0012
      Learmonth            0   0010 0002
      Culgoora             1   1111 0000
      Canberra             1   0012 0001
      Hobart               1   0112 0001
      Casey(Ant)           3   1221 1010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2220 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     5    Quiet 
08 Oct     5    Quiet 
09 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in all regions during the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Oct    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Oct    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next few days in most Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    74400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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