[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 6 09:39:21 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hrs. The only
activity coming from a C1.4 Class flare. The solar wind velocity
declined from 380km/s to 340km/s over the UT day. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to neutral for most of the day, only deviating slighly
southwards to a maximum of -5nT. Similar conditions are expected
to continue for the next few days with the possibility of C-Class
events. No growth or increase in magnetic complexity of any of
the current solar regions on disc was observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 1221 0112
Darwin 2 2110 0112
Townsville 3 1121 0112
Learmonth 2 2110 0012
Culgoora 4 1121 2--0
Canberra 2 1221 0002
Hobart 3 1221 0101
Casey(Ant) 6 2331 0012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 7 Quiet
07 Oct 7 Quiet
08 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours.
These conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days
with isolated Unsettled periods, in agreement with the 27 day
recurrence pattern outlook for this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the
past 24 hours. Conditions expected to be mostly normal for all
regions over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions with slight
overnight enhancements observed for Northern-Australia/Equatorial
regions as well as Southern AUS/NZ. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 90600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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