[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 5 09:49:55 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hrs. The only 
activity coming from a C2.6 Class flare with an associated non-earth 
directed CME originating from the east limb. The solar wind velocity 
rose from 360km/s to a maximum of 420km/s at 1730UT after which 
it fell to be 380km/s at the time of this report. The north south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-10nT from 0000UT to 1300UT after which it settled 
to be neutral at the time of this report. A small coronal hole 
has moved into geoeffective position in the last 24 hours. Similar 
Solar conditions are expected to continue for the next few days 
with an increase in the possibility of C-Class events. No growth 
or increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar 
regions on disc was observed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2322 2222
      Darwin               7   2222 2222
      Townsville           7   2222 3122
      Learmonth            7   2222 2221
      Culgoora             8   2322 2222
      Canberra             8   2322 2222
      Hobart               8   2322 2222
      Casey(Ant)          12   34-3 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             15   1234 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed, with a 
small coronal hole moving into geoeffective position in the last 
24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 
2 days with possible isolated Active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the 
past 24 hours with slight local overnight depressions observed 
for low to mid latitudes. Conditions expected to be mostly normal 
for all regions over the next few days with the chance of isolated 
degraded conditions for higher latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions with slight 
overnight depressions observed for Northern-Australia/Equatorial 
regions as well as Southern AUS/NZ. These conditions are expected 
to continue for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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