[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 4 09:41:33 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs. The
only activity coming from Region 676 which produced two minor
B-Class events. The solar wind velocity rose from 360km/s at
0000UT to 380km/s at 0400UT where it remained so to the time
of this report. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to
0600UT after which it went south and oscillated between neutral
and a maximum of -8nT, which corresponded to an Active geomagnetic
period between 1100UT and 1600UT. Similar Solar conditions are
expected to continue for the next two days with no observed growth
or increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar
regions on disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 1124 5323
Darwin 11 1123 4322
Townsville 16 1224 5323
Learmonth 16 0124 5333
Culgoora 14 1124 5223
Canberra 16 1134 5323
Hobart 14 1234 4322
Casey(Ant) 13 2-33 4222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2333 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with with an isolated Active period from 1100UT
to 1600UT, as Bz went south from 0600UT with a maximum of -8nT
in the Active period. Similar conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days with possible isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the
past 24 hours. Conditions expected to be mostly normal for all
regions over the next few days with slight chance of isolated
periods of degraded conditions for higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days, with a chance
of isolated periods of degraded HF conditions for Southern AUS/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 76100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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