[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 3 09:27:58 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs. The
only activity coming from Region 675 which produced two minor
B-Class events. The solar wind velocity rose from 320km/s at
0000UT to 400km/s at 0200UT where it remained till 1900UT when
it fell to be 340km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-5nT throughout the UT day. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next two days with no observed growth or
increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar regions
on disc.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 2333 3223
Darwin 9 2322 3222
Townsville 8 1322 3223
Learmonth 9 2223 3222
Culgoora 10 2332 3223
Canberra 11 2333 3223
Hobart 12 1343 3222
Casey(Ant) 14 3443 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 OCT :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
2 days with possible isolated Active periods.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0320UT on 02 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the
past 24 hours. Conditions expected to be mostly normal for all
regions over the next few days with slight chance of isolated
periods of degraded conditions for higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days, with a chance
of isolated periods of degraded HF conditions for Southern AUS/NZ
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list