[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs. The 
solar wind velocity continued to fall from 360km/s at 0000UT 
to 340km/s at the time of this report. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between 
4nT and -2nT throughout the UT day. These conditions are expected 
to continue for the next two days with no observed growth or 
increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar regions 
on disc. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0112
      Darwin               3   1111 1113
      Townsville           3   1111 1112
      Learmonth            1   0101 0112
      Culgoora             2   1111 0012
      Canberra             2   0111 0022
      Hobart               1   0101 0111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2100 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. These 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days with 
possible isolated Unsettled periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slightly enhanced conditions for mid to high latitudes 
observed over the past 24 hours. Conditions expected to be mostly 
normal for all regions over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all regions with slight 
enhancements observed for the Southern AUS/NZ regions during 
local night. Normal HF conditions are expected over the next 
few days over all regions, with the continued chance of periods 
of enhanced conditions at mid to high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    51900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"