[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 1 09:31:31 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs with
GOES 10 & 12 satellites background X-Ray flux levels falling
from B1 to A5. The solar wind velocity fell from 420km/s at 0000UT
to 360km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
4nT and -2nT. These conditions are expected to continue for the
next two days with no significant active solar regions on disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 2111 0011
Darwin 3 2111 1011
Townsville 1 1100 1011
Learmonth 1 2100 0010
Culgoora 1 1101 0011
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 1 1100 0010
Casey(Ant) 6 3321 0010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
02 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
03 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
isolated Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Local overnight depressions observed at low latitudes,
with continued variable conditions possible for the next 24 hours.
Slightly enhanced conditions for high latitudes observed over
the later half of the UT day. Conditions should be mostly normal
for mid-high latitudes over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 10% over local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus region,
and slight enhancements observed for the Antartic region. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected over the next few days at mid
to high latitudes with possible overnight and post-dawn depressed
conditions at low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 76900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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