[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 28 10:48:54 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
Two C-class flares were recorded during this period, a
C2 from region 707(S16E26) at 0155UT and a C1.5 from
region 706(S07E30) at 0516UT. Solar wind speed showed
fluctuations between 400 and 440 km/s (approx.) for most
part of the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz, remained mostly slightly negative
during the UT day. A coronal hole may strengthen the solar
wind stream from 29 November onwards for approximately three
days after its effect starts. Isolated C-class events may
be observed during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2132 2433
Darwin 8 2121 2333
Townsville 9 1122 2432
Learmonth 13 3122 2523
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 10 2122 2433
Hobart 12 2232 2433
Casey(Ant) 14 --43 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 13 3343 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 6 Quiet
29 Nov 10 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible.
30 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with possibility of active
conditions.
COMMENT: The geomagntic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next 24 hours. An
anticipated coronal hole effect may raise the geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels on 29 November and upto unsettled
to active levels on 30 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations during the next two days with possibility of minor
to mild depressions on high latitudes on the second day of
the period. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on low and mid-latitudes on
30 November with possibility of mild to moderate degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs on high latitudes
on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of minor to moderate degradations over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 75 near predicted monthly values/5% enhanced.
29 Nov 70 near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 58 near predicted monthly values/dpressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
over most Australian/NZ regions during the next two days.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions on 30 November,
particularly in the southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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