[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 29 10:57:29 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no recorded C-class or higher flares. Solar wind speed was
steady, just below 420km/s from 0000UT to 1900UT at which their
was a step increase of 60km/s after which it then declined to
be 440km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, was southward for most
of the UT day, between neutral and -5nT from 0000UT to 1900UT,
at which Bz began fluctuating between +/-10nT till the time of
this report. An equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected
to be in geoeffective position within the next 24 hours. Elevated
solar wind stream paramters are expected in the next 2-3 days.
Isolated C-class events may be observed during the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2332 2333
Darwin 6 2221 2223
Townsville 8 2221 2332
Learmonth 8 2221 2333
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 8 1232 2324
Hobart 9 2332 2224
Casey(Ant) 15 -442 2232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1232 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 11 Unsettled
30 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to
Unsettled during the next 24 hours. Anticipated coronal hole
effects are expected to elevate geomagnetic activity levels with
possible Active periods over the next 2-3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours, with the possibility of minor depressions
on mid-high latitudes after this. Minor to Significant depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed on
low-high latitudes from 30 Nov onwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
30 Nov 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Dec 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
most Australian/NZ regions during the next 24 hours with the
chance of minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs for Southern Aus/NZ regions from 30-Nov onwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 89200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list