[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 27 10:48:02 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours
as only three B-class flares were observed during this period.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 520 km/s to
400 km/s (approx.) during the day until the time of this
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz, showed minor fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value, staying southwards for relatively longer
intervals of time. A new region 708(N08E81), that has been
numbered today, seems to be the previously X-flare producing
region 696. A coronal hole is expected to take geo-effective
position around 29 November onwards. This may strengthen the
solar wind stream for approximately three days from then.
Regions 706, 707 and 708 have the potential for C-Class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 2222 2223
Darwin 15 3--- ----
Townsville 7 2222 2223
Learmonth 6 2122 2223
Culgoora 4 1121 1223
Canberra 5 1222 1223
Hobart 6 1222 2222
Casey(Ant) 10 --33 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 20 4534 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible.
28 Nov 6 Quiet
29 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible.
COMMENT: The geomagntic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with some
possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 27 and 29 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradaions.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 75 near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 77 near predicted monthly values/5% enhanced.
29 Nov 75 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be mostly normal over
most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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