[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 26 10:40:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with the
only notable event being a C2.6 flare originating from region
704. Solar wind speed continued to gradually increase, from 440km/s
at 00UT to be 540km/s at the time of this report. The north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward
from 00UT to 08UT with a maximum of -8nT, after which it
resided close to neutral with occasional slight southward turns.
Elevated solar wind stream parameters are expected over the next 2 days
due to the coronal hole effects. Another large coronal hole appears
to be moving into geoeffective position over the next 2 days. Regions
706 and 707 have the potential for C-Class and isolated M-Class
events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 3333 3222
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 10 3322 31--
Learmonth 12 3323 3232
Culgoora 9 2232 3222
Canberra 11 3233 3222
Hobart 14 3333 4222
Casey(Ant) 15 4--3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2113 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, but
with a greater chance of isolated Active periods over the next
two days, due to elevated solar wind stream paramters from the
recent geoeffective coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours
over low to mid latitudes, with possible degradations at higher
latitudes due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity
from coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 75 near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal over most Australian/NZ
regions, with possible degradations for Southern Australia/NZ
regions over the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list