[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 25 11:17:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. New region
706 was the source of three C-Class events, the largest being
C9.8 at 2145UT. Region 706 is the likely return of previously
active region 693. Solar wind speed gradually increased over
the UT day from a low of 380km/s to be 480km/s at the time of
this report. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the day.
Elevated solar wind stream parameters are expected from the 26th
Nov due to the coronal hole that has moved into geoeffective
position. With returning regions 693 and 698 appearing, there
is the possibility for further C-Class and M-Class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 -133 213-
Darwin 7 -122 213-
Townsville 9 -033 213-
Learmonth 9 --32 213-
Culgoora 8 --32 113-
Canberra 7 -133 112-
Hobart 7 -123 113-
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to remain at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the next 24 hours with possible Active periods beginning
on the 26th Nov in association with the coronal hole that has
moved into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours
over all regions, with possible degradations at higher latitudes
beginning on 26 Nov due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 70 15-30% enhanced Australian region, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
26 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal over all Australian/NZ
regions for the next 24 hours. Possible degradations for Southern
Australia/NZ regions from 26 Nov due to coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
THIS REPORT WAS ISSUED LATE DUE TO A DATA STORAGE PROBLEM
AND ASSOCIATED DELAY IN PROCESSING.
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