[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed continued to gradually decline for the second 
day running, finishing the day at around 400km/s. The north south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained near 
neutral throughout the day. A coronal hole has transited the 
solar central meridian, and the Earth is expected to enter the 
wind stream from this coronal hole on 26 Nov. X-ray enhancement 
on the east limb heralds the return of regions 693 and 698 over 
the next 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2222
      Darwin               5   2112 2223
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            5   2112 2223
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             5   2102 2220
      Hobart               4   2111 1212
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   1443 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Nov    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled 
levels over the next two days, prior to an increase to unsettled 
to active levels on 26 Nov in association with the coronal hole 
that has transited solar central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair     

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    60    15-30% enhanced Australian region, otherwise 
                near predicted monthly values. 
25 Nov    60    15-30% enhanced Australian region, otherwise 
                near predicted monthly values. 
26 Nov    45    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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