[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2355Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed continued to gradually decline, finishing the day 
at around 500km/s. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained near neutral throughout the day. A coronal 
hole is transiting solar central meridian, and the Earth is expected 
to enter the wind stream from this coronal hole on 26 Nov. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2232 1122
      Darwin               5   2222 1122
      Townsville           7   1233 1122
      Learmonth            5   2222 1122
      Culgoora             4   1222 1112
      Canberra             5   1232 1112
      Hobart               7   2233 1111
      Casey(Ant)          12   34-3 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 NOV : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            48   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            87   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   2135 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled 
levels over the next three days, prior to an increase to unsettled 
to active levels on 26 Nov in association with the coronal hole 
currently transiting solar central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov    50    15-20% enhanced equatorial and nothern Australian 
                region, otherwise near predicted monthly values. 
24 Nov    50    15-20% enhanced equatorial and nothern Australian 
                region, otherwise near predicted monthly values. 
25 Nov    50    15-20% enhanced equatorial and nothern Australian 
                region, otherwise near predicted monthly values. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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