[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 22 10:45:56 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has remained at very low levels over
the past 24 hours. A sudden jump in solar wind speed to between
600 and 650 km/s was observed around 21/0030UT. This continued
a trend over the past two days of elevated solar wind speed in
association with a weak coronal hole. Solar wind speed gradually
declined to finish the day at around 600km/s. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field had returned to
near neutral by 01UT, and remained so for the rest of the day.
Another coronal hole is starting to transit solar central meridian,
and the Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this
coronal hole on about 26 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 3234 3323
Darwin 15 3224 4323
Townsville 14 3234 3323
Learmonth 16 3224 4423
Culgoora 11 3223 3323
Canberra 13 3333 3322
Hobart 15 3333 4322
Casey(Ant) 24 5--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 108 (Major storm)
Hobart 166 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3434 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The field is expected to return to quiet levels over
the next three to four days, prior to an increase to unsettled
to active levels on 26 Nov in association with the coronal hole
currently near solar central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 45 Near predicted monthly values during the night
for all regions, and during the day for the Australian
region. Enhanced during the day for equatorial/PNG
region, and depressed during the day for Antarctic
region.
23 Nov 45 near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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