[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 22 10:45:56 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has remained at very low levels over 
the past 24 hours. A sudden jump in solar wind speed to between 
600 and 650 km/s was observed around 21/0030UT. This continued 
a trend over the past two days of elevated solar wind speed in 
association with a weak coronal hole. Solar wind speed gradually 
declined to finish the day at around 600km/s. The north south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field had returned to 
near neutral by 01UT, and remained so for the rest of the day. 
Another coronal hole is starting to transit solar central meridian, 
and the Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this 
coronal hole on about 26 Nov. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3234 3323
      Darwin              15   3224 4323
      Townsville          14   3234 3323
      Learmonth           16   3224 4423
      Culgoora            11   3223 3323
      Canberra            13   3333 3322
      Hobart              15   3333 4322
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            85   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           108   (Major storm)
      Hobart             166   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   3434 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Nov     5    Quiet 
24 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The field is expected to return to quiet levels over 
the next three to four days, prior to an increase to unsettled 
to active levels on 26 Nov in association with the coronal hole 
currently near solar central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov    45    Near predicted monthly values during the night 
                for all regions, and during the day for the Australian 
                region. Enhanced during the day for equatorial/PNG 
                region, and depressed during the day for Antarctic 
                region. 
23 Nov    45    near predicted monthly values 
24 Nov    50    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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