[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 21 10:04:05 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low again over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was mildly elevated at 450-500km/sec in association
with a coronal hole wind stream. The north south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field unexpectedly remained southward
(10nT) for most of the UT day. ACE EPAM data showed an increasing
flux trend probably in association with the coronal hole wind
stream. Another coronal hole is visible to the east of solar
central meridian and the Earth is expected to enter the wind
stream from this coronal hole on about 24 Nov. This hole is relatively
narrow so elevated wind conditions may be brief 24-25 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 3234 3433
Darwin 14 3223 3432
Townsville 16 3224 3433
Learmonth 13 3233 3-32
Culgoora 17 3234 3433
Canberra 18 3334 3433
Hobart 16 3334 3333
Casey(Ant) 22 5--4 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0200 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 16 Unsettled to active
22 Nov 12 Unsettled
23 Nov 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Unepexected geomanetic activity was observed over the
past 24 hours. This activity was probably coronal hole wind stream
related activity arriving sooner and stronger than forecast.
Active periods expected for today, then declining.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours at
mid to high latitudes. Degraded conditions may persist today
then improving.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ region)
21 Nov 40 near predicted monthly values (northern Aus region)
22 Nov 55 about 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 55 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 20 November
and is current for interval 21 November only. Depressed MUFs
observed after dawn this morning following unexpected geomagnetic
activity, probably from earlier than expected arrival of coronal
hole wind stream. Northern region MUFs expected to remain near
normal, hence two T indices forcast for today. HF Communicators
should use the lower of the two indices when communicating from
one region to the other.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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