[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 6 10:53:57 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 04/2309UT possible lower West Pacific
M2/1N 04/2229UT possible lower West Pacific
M4/1F 1130UT possible lower European
M1/SF 1922UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate,
with region 696 producing two M-Class events and many C-Class
events. The largest of these flares was a M4.0 which occured
at 1125UT and a M1.2 at 1910UT. Lasco imagery for each of these
events did not indicate any full halo CME's. The M5 event that
occured at 2255UT on 04/11 had an associated partial halo CME
that is expected to be geoeffective. Region 696 has also grown
slightly in sunspot size over the last 24 hours while 693 has
shown some decay. Both regions retain a level of magnetic compexity
that suggest further C and M class events are possible. Solar
wind speed declined over the UT day from a maximum of 440km/s
to be at 350km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magentic field Bz, fluctuated
between +/-5nT for the first half of the day and then remained
close to nuetral up to the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 2110 0012
Darwin 2 -110 012-
Townsville 1 2100 0012
Learmonth 1 2100 0013
Culgoora 2 2210 0002
Canberra 1 2110 0002
Hobart 1 2110 0001
Casey(Ant) 8 4--2 1013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1221 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 17 active
07 Nov 17 active
08 Nov 17 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. An expected shock front is anticipated to arrive
in the next 24 hours from a CME on 03/11 which could create periods
of minor storm levels. Conditions are expected to rise to elevated
levels for the next 2 days, as subsequent flares that occured
after 03/11 CME were also considered to be geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal for the next 24
hours but with the increased chance of degraded HF conditions
due to recent geoeffective coronal mass ejections, especially
at higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Nov 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
08 Nov 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 5-7 November (SWFs) . Normal HF conditions
forecast for the next 24hrs but with an expected degradation
in conditions occuring within this period due to the arrival
of shock fronts from recent CME activity. Depressed conditions
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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