[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 5 11:15:36 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
a M5.4 Class event occuring at 2315UT from Region 696. Although
LASCO imagery is not available yet to confirm a CME, TypeII and
TypeIV radio sweeps were observed on the Culgoora radiospectrometer
indicating a mass ejection is likely to have taken place. Given
the position of the region, this event is also likely to be a
geoeffective event. Region 696 also produced a C6.3-Class event
at 0845 that produced a partial halo CME that could produce a
glancing blow effect. Region 696 appears to have grown slightly
in size while Region 693 has shown some slight decay. Both regions
retain a level of magnetic compexity that suggest further C and
M class events possible.Region 691 is approaching the west limb
and will rotate off disk in the next 24hours. Solar wind speed
rose to be at a max of 475km/s over the UT day and Bz fluctuated
between +/-8nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 0212
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Townsville 6 3221 0223
Learmonth 5 2221 022-
Culgoora 5 2221 1223
Canberra 6 2321 0212
Hobart 7 2331 1213
Casey(Ant) 6 ---2 1223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 NOV :
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Culgoora 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 0003 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 17 active
06 Nov 17 active
07 Nov 17 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day. These conditions are expected to change over the next
24hours with the expected arrival on 06Nov of recent CME's. Conditions
are also expected to be disrupted for 07Nov with possible Active
and Minor storm periods in the next 2-3days from todays M5.4
class event CME, given the geoeffective position of the flares
source, Region 696.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal for the next 24
hours but with the increased chance of degraded HF conditions
due to recent geoeffective coronal mass ejections.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected for the next 24hrs but
with the increasing chance of degraded conditions coming into
effect from recent CME activity and arrival of possible shock
fronts. Possible depressions could occur for Southern Aus/NZ
regions if recent solar mass ejections arrive over the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list