[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 4 10:59:09 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 0133UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 0336UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M5.0 1547UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1833UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
four M-Class events observed including a M5-Class flare from
region 696. Region 696 was the source of a M1.6-Class event at
0325UT which produced a non earth directed CME and TypeII and
Type IV radio sweeps as observed on the Culgoora Spectrometer.
The M5-Class flare at 1535UT also produced from Region 696 had
a similar associated CME that does not appear to be full halo
and may only deliver glancing blow effects in 2-3days time. Region
691 produced a M2.8 Class event at 0125UT as well as a few minor
C-Class events. Region 696 appears to have grown in both size
and magnetic complecity and is expected to produce further C
and M Class events as well as Region 691 while it remians on
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 1112 1223
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Townsville 7 2212 2233
Learmonth 8 2212 1333
Culgoora 6 1113 1133
Canberra 6 1013 1233
Hobart 5 1113 1223
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 223-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1002 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 12 Unsettled
05 Nov 17 active
06 Nov 17 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24hrs. These conditions are expected to change in the next
2-3 days with the possible arrival of the recent mass ejections
resulting in Active periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal for the next 24
hours with the chance of degraded HF conditions after this time
due to possible glancing blow effects of recent coronal mass
ejections.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 70 near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 65 about 10% below predicted monthly values
06 Nov 60 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for the next 24hrs but with
the chnace of degraded conditions in the next 2-3 days for southern
Aus/NZ region if recent solar mass ejections induce geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 36200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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