[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 7 10:59:10 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9/2N 0034UT probable lower West Pacific
M1/-- 1953UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
region 696 again producing M-Class events. A M9.3 class event
occured at 0010UT followed shortly by a M5.9 Class event at 0045UT
that resulted in a full halo CME with a estimated shock speed
of 593km/s. A TypeII and then a TypeIV radio sweep was observed
on the Culgoora radiospectrograph at the same times as the M-Class
events. Region 696 also produced a minor M-Class event of M1.4
magnitude at 1938UT. Given the position of region 696, the CME
is expected to be be geoeffective. Region 696 has also grown
slightly in sunspot size over the last 24 hours while 693 continues
to show decay. Both regions retain a level of magnetic compexity
that suggest further C and M class events are possible. Solar
wind speed declined over the UT day from a maximum of 360km/s
to be at 330km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magentic field Bz, remained positive
or close to nuetral for most of the UT day, with only an brief
southwards change at 1700UT.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
06/0835UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 2111 0012
Darwin 3 3111 0012
Townsville 2 2111 0012
Learmonth 1 1011 0001
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 2 2111 0001
Hobart 1 1011 0001
Casey(Ant) 5 2231 1013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 3100 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 16 active
08 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
09 Nov 40 Minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Expected shock front arrivals did not occur from
partial halo CME on 03/11. Further partial halo CME's
observed are anticipated to create Active to Minor Storm conditions
on 07/11 and 08/11. The M9.3 Class CME from today is expected
to arrive on 09/11 with Active to Minor Storm levels. There is
also two geoeffective coronal holes that could also create disrupted
geomagnetic conditonsfrom 08/11 onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
09 Nov Fair Fair-Poor Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal for the next 24
hours but with the increased chance of degraded HF conditions
due to recent geoeffective coronal mass ejections, especially
at higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Nov 10 about 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 5-7 November (SWFs) . Normal HF conditions
forecast for the next 24hrs but with an expected degradation
in conditions occuring within this period due to the arrival
of shock fronts from recent CME activity. Depressed conditions
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Degraded conditions possible
from 08/11 onwards with expected arrival of a significant M9.3
Class event an associated CME from 0045UT 06/11.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 43200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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