[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 23 09:35:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/SF 21/2352UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: There was an impulsive M2 level flare from region 618
at 21/2350. This region has shown some developmenmt in size over
the past 24 hours, and may have potential for further isolated
high C- to M-class flare activity. Otherwise only B to minor
C-class flare activity was observed over the UT day, mainly from
region 618. Solar wind parameters continue to decline from the
mild coronal hole wind stream observed over the past few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 8 2333 1201
Darwin 8 2333 1202
Townsville 8 2333 1202
Learmonth 9 2333 2202
Culgoora 8 1333 1201
Canberra 8 1333 1201
Hobart 7 1233 2201
Casey(Ant) 10 3342 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAY :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 3332 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
24 May 8 Mostly quiet with unsettled periods.
25 May 8 Mostly quiet with unsettled periods.
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been relatively steady at around
480 km/s over the UT day. There was a period of IMF Bz polarity
fluctuations early in the UT day, preceding a brief period of
active geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes only. IMF polarity
fluctuations declined significantly over the second half of the
UT day. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decline
today, with geomagnetic conditions becoming mostly quiet for
the next three days. There is a chance of isolated unsettled
to active periods mainly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days
with possible isolated degradations at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 10-25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 55 near predicted monthly values
24 May 60 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 May 60 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F observed Antarctic region. The significant
low latitude enhancements of the preceding few days were not
observed over the past 24 hours. Mostly normal to good HF conditions
are expected over the next three days. Possible isolated degradations
at high latitudes in association with mild geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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