[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Active region 618 produced only B to minor C-class flare 
activity over the past 24 hours. This region has maintained moderate 
magnetic complexity and a trend to increasing size. There is 
a possibility of isolated high C- to low M-class activity from 
this region. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3212 2221
      Darwin               7   3212 2222
      Townsville           8   3222 2221
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Culgoora             7   3212 2221
      Canberra             7   3212 2221
      Hobart               6   2212 2221
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2343 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
25 May     8    Mostly quiet with unsettled periods. 
26 May     8    Mostly quiet with unsettled periods. 
COMMENT: There was little change in solar wind parameters over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at 460-480 
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated mildly about 
neutral. Some extended intervals of southward bias in Bz have 
resulted in isolated active periods at high latitudes only. Geomagnetic 
conditions should continue at mainly quiet levels with isolated 
unsettled intervals at low to mid latitudes and possible active 
periods at high latitudes. A decline to generally quiet conditions 
is anticipated by day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days 
with possible isolated degradations at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F observed S Aus and Antarctic region. 
Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected over the next 
three days. Possible isolated degradations at high latitudes 
in association with mild geomagnetic disturbances. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 494 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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