[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Only B to minor C-class flare activity observed over 
the past 24 hours, mainly from region 618. There is a small equatorial 
coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere producing a mildly 
elevated solar wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3221 1210
      Darwin               7   3311 1221
      Townsville           5   3211 1211
      Learmonth            6   3221 1210
      Culgoora             4   2211 1210
      Canberra             6   3221 1210
      Hobart               5   2221 1210
      Casey(Ant)          11   4422 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAY : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            72   (Active)
      Hobart              85   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   2235 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance active periods. 
23 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
24 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF showed minor polarity fluctuations 
over the UT day under the influence of a mild coronal hole wind 
stream. There was a briedf period of active geomagnetic conditions 
at high latitudes only early in the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions 
should continue to decline today. Expect mostly quiet conditions 
days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days 
with possible isolated degradations at mid to high latitudes 
on day one. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 May    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
      over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 May    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
24 May    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight spread-F observed S Aus region. Periods 
of spread-F observed Antarctic region. The significant low latitude 
enhancements of the preceding few days were not observed over 
the past 24 hours. Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected 
over the next three days. Possible isolated degradations at mid 
to high latitudes on day one in association with mild geomagnetic 
disturbances. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   229000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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