[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Only 
a few B class flares from region 609, the largest being a B7 
at 0730UT and a B5 at 2100UT. Region 609 grew slightly over the 
past 24 hours and is expected to be the source of further C-class 
and possible M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined from 
440km/s at 0000UT to 350km/s at the end of the UT day. The interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz was north for most of the UT day untill 1945UT 
where it went southward at a maximum of -8nT and has remained 
at this level up to the time of this report. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 1111
      Darwin               3   1211 1112
      Townsville           3   2120 1112
      Learmonth            2   1110 1012
      Culgoora             2   1110 1011
      Canberra             1   1110 1001
      Hobart               2   1110 2101
      Casey(Ant)           6   3230 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAY : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             13   2343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected to continue for for the 
next few days, with possible isolated Active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hrs. 
Possible minor degradations in HF conditions could occur at high 
latitudes for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
16 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
17 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal for the 
next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    71100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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