[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Region 
609 was the source of three C class flares, the maximum being 
C7 occuring at 1330UT and two C1 class flares at 0730UT and 0930UT. 
It also produced three smaller B class events earlier in the 
UT day. Region 609 has shown considerable growth over the last 
24 hours and is expected to continue with such beahviour. The 
solar wind speed remained between 440km/s and 400km/s. Bz was 
southward at a maximum of -7nT between 0240UT and 0720UT after 
which it then fluctuated between +/-5nT for the rest of the UT 
day. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   1232 1232
      Darwin               8   1232 1232
      Townsville           9   1333 1222
      Learmonth            8   0232 1332
      Culgoora             7   0232 1232
      Canberra            11   1243 1233
      Hobart              11   0243 1332
      Casey(Ant)           9   2322 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAY : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3422 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May    11    Quiet to unsettled 
15 May    11    Quiet to unsettled 
16 May    11    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the 
past 24 hours with a minor Active period between 0600UT and 0830UT. 
Similar conditions are expected to continue for for the next 
few days due to the current geo-effective coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hrs. 
Possible minor degradations in HF conditions could occur at high 
latitudes for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 May    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
16 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal for the 
next 24 hours with the possibility of minor depressions in MUFs 
around Southern Aus/NZ regions for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: A7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    93900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.