[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Region 
609 was the source of a C2-class flare event at 1440UT and a 
minor B9-class event at 2100UT. Region 609 grew only slightly 
over the past 24 hours and its magnetic complexity remains unchanged. 
It is expected to be the source of further C-class and possible 
M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined from 370km/s to 
330km/s over the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, 
shifted between north and south for the first half of the UT 
day between +/-5nT before settling around nuetral to the time 
of this report. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 1102
      Darwin               4   2212 1111
      Townsville           4   3112 1102
      Learmonth            4   2212 1102
      Culgoora             4   1311 1101
      Canberra             3   1112 1202
      Hobart               4   1122 1211
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAY : 
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2311 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected to continue for for 
the next few days, with possible isolated Active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hrs. 
Chance of minor degradations for HF conditions could occur at 
higher latitudes over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
17 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
18 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hours 
with slightly enhanced conditions for low to mid latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    57200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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