[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May:  93/38

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low today. 
Only a few B-class flares were recorded- the largest 
flare being a B4.4 at 0926UT from region 606(S09E39). 
Solar wind speed decreased from 420 km/s to 390 km/s 
(approx.) by 2000UT and then increased to 420 km/s 
(approx.) by the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal 
value  throughout the  UT day.  The solar activity is 
expected to remain very low during the next few days. 
Slight  strengthening  in the  solar wind  stream  is 
possible on 13 May due to a disappearing filament from 
the area of region 606 observed on 10 May. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 
2200UT on 10 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 1122
      Darwin               3   1111 0122
      Townsville           3   1111 1112
      Learmonth            4   2210 1121
      Culgoora             2   1100 1112
      Canberra             3   1210 1122
      Hobart               3   1111 1112
      Casey(Ant)           7   3321 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAY : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2321 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May     6    Quiet 
12 May     6    Quiet 
13 May    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for the next few days. However, isolated unsettled conditions 
are possible on 13 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next two days. Minor degradations in HF conditions 
are possible at high latitudes on 13 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 May    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May    42    Near predicted monthly values 
12 May    42    Near predicted monthly values 
13 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed by about 
                5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next two days. However, minor depressions in MUFs 
are possible in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 13 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    98000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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