[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the past 24 hours, 
with only one recorded B1.0-class event. The Solar wind speed 
remained on average 420 km/s and rose to 440km/h at 2000UT but 
then began declining to 400km/h at the time of this report. Bz 
fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 0600UT where it remiained 
northward. At 1700UT Bz turned soutthward and has remained so 
since with a mximumj of 8nT. The solar activity is expected to 
be low over the next few days, with an possible increase in the 
solar wind stream parameters on 13 May due to a disappearing 
filament from the area of region 606 observed on 10 May. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 596 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2211 1233
      Darwin               6   2211 1233
      Townsville           6   2211 1233
      Learmonth            7   2221 0333
      Culgoora             6   2201 1233
      Canberra             5   2201 1133
      Hobart               5   2211 1133
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1221 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May     6    Quiet 
13 May    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
14 May     8    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for the next few days. Isolated unsettled conditions are possible 
on 13 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hrs. 
Minor degradations in HF conditions are possible at high latitudes 
on 13 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
13 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed by about 
                5%. 
14 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal for the 
next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs are possible in Southern 
Aus/NZ regions on 13 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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