[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline over the 
past 24 hours down to approximately 400km/s. Recent CME activity 
is not expected to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 2201
      Darwin               3   1200 2201
      Townsville           4   1211 2201
      Learmonth            3   1201 2201
      Culgoora             3   1101 2201
      Canberra             3   1201 2201
      Hobart               4   1211 2201
      Casey(Ant)           7   3321 1202
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3322 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May     6    Quiet 
11 May     6    Quiet 
12 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions expected for 
the next few days. Recent CME activity is not expected to be 
geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded up to 15% at times for mid-high 
latitudes. Slight depressions are again possible at times for 
mid-high latitudes for 9 May, otherwise mostly normal conditions 
are expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed up to 15% at times, otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed up to 15% at times, otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May    45    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
11 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
12 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded up to 15% at times for southern 
regions. Slight depressions are again possible at times for southern 
regions for 9 May, otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected 
for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    74400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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