[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 500 to 460km/sec over 
the UT day as the Earth gradually leaves the coronal hole wind 
stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated around neutral over the UT day. No significant 
flare activity observed over the UT day. ACE EPAM shock arrival 
precursor data channels do not show an increasing flux trend. 
This may imply that any shock from recently reported coronal 
mass ejections will be minimal. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2323 3221
      Darwin               8   2222 3221
      Townsville          11   2313 3322
      Learmonth            8   2213 3221
      Culgoora             7   2213 2221
      Canberra            10   2223 3321
      Hobart              10   2323 3221
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 3321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3442 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 May     6    Quiet 
11 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions expected. There 
is an outside chance for some weak activity in the next 24 hours 
from a recent weak coronal mass ejection. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at times for mid-high latitudes 
second half of UT day 8 May. Low to mid latitudes mostly near 
normal. General improving trend in HF communications conditions 
expected at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Absorption and spread F observed after 10 UT.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
10 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
11 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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