[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at around 520km/sec 
over the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated south by up to 5nT over the UT day. 
Solar wind speed elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream. Wind 
speed expected to have a declining trend over next few days as 
the Earth leaves the wind stream. New solar region 606 has been 
reported to have rotated around the south east solar limb. This 
region may have produced a weak mass ejection. East limb location 
suggests that mass ejection is unlikely to be geoeefective. Another 
solar region was reported to have produced a weak mass ejection 
overnight but this mass ejection is also considered too weak to 
produce any significant activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2342 3221
      Darwin              10   2332 3221
      Townsville          10   2332 3222
      Learmonth           12   2342 3221
      Culgoora            12   2342 2322
      Canberra            15   2442 3321
      Hobart              13   2342 3320
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           110   (Major storm)
      Hobart             102   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2232 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May    12    Unsettled 
09 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods observed due to coronal hole 
wind stream effects. An overall declining trend in activity is 
expected next few days. Isolated active periods possible today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at times for mid-high latitudes 
second half of UT day 7 May. Degradation likely to be in association 
with southward IMF conditions. Low to mid latitudes mostly near 
normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first
      half of UT day. Absorption and spread F
      observed second half of UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
09 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
10 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were mildly degraded at times for southern 
regions. Normal HF conditions expected for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: A8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 542 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   142000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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