[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 5 09:33:26 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
low B-class flares were observed- the largest being a
B2.8 at 1609UT from region 601(S09W77). The solar wind
speed gradually increased from 350 to 450 km/s (approx.)
during the first half of the UT day and then remained
between 400 km/s and 450 km/s during the rest of the day
by the time of this report. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor
fluctuations (+/- 5nT approx.) almost the whole day. The
coronal hole, that is currently in a geoeffective position,
may strengthen the solar wind stream during the next two
days. Region 601 may produce C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 8 2331 3113
Darwin 7 2--- ----
Townsville 7 2231 3112
Learmonth 8 2232 3123
Culgoora 7 2231 3012
Canberra 8 2331 3012
Hobart 8 1331 3113
Casey(Ant) 11 3332 3123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAY :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2122 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 16 Mostly unsettled to active.
06 May 16 Mostly unsettled to active.
07 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained lower than
expected during the last 24 hours. The possible reasons
for this seem to be a weaker than expected solar wind
stream and also Bz remaining mostly near the normal value.
The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced during the
next 2 days due to a coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
are possible at mid and high latitudes during the next
2 days. Minor degradations may also be recorded at low
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
10%.
06 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
10%.
07 May 54 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed, especially
in the southern Aus/NZ regions during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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