[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 6 09:46:08 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Only minor B-class flare activity was observed today. 
Region 603 will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 605 
has potential for C-class flare activity. A small equatorial 
coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar wind stream. 
This feature will rotate out of geoeffective position in the 
next two days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   1233 3432
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          13   1233 3433
      Learmonth           16   2223 3532
      Culgoora            11   1223 2432
      Canberra            13   1233 3432
      Hobart              13   1233 3432
      Casey(Ant)          15   2333 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2332 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    12    Unsettled 
07 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: There was a minor step increase in solar wind velocity 
from ~450 to ~550 km/s around 16UT. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly neutral 
to north-biased. There was a period of mild polarity fluctuation 
about the time of the step increase in velocity, resulting in 
an isolated active interval observed at all latitudes. Otherwise, 
geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, with active to 
minor storm periods observed at high latitudes only. Expect mostly 
unsettled conditions today, with the chance of isolated active 
periods, mainly at higher latitudes. As the coronal hole rotates 
out of geoeffective range, conditions should decline to quiet 
to unsettled on days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Moderate degradations observed at high latitudes in association 
with geomagnetic activity. Minor to moderate degradations in 
HF conditions are possible at all latitudes during the next 2 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      with isolated daytime depressions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with extended
      periods of localised degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    40    Isolated local degradations/near predicted monthly 
                values. 
07 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
08 May    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed Equatorial region. 
Intense spread-F observed at times Antarctic region. Moderate 
depressions observed after local dawn today S Aus/NZ region. 
Isolated localised degradations are possible at all latitudes 
today. Expect improving conditions days two and three, with minor 
degradations possible, mainly at higher latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: A6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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