[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 6 09:46:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Only minor B-class flare activity was observed today.
Region 603 will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 605
has potential for C-class flare activity. A small equatorial
coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar wind stream.
This feature will rotate out of geoeffective position in the
next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 13 1233 3432
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 13 1233 3433
Learmonth 16 2223 3532
Culgoora 11 1223 2432
Canberra 13 1233 3432
Hobart 13 1233 3432
Casey(Ant) 15 2333 3432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAY :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 2332 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 12 Unsettled
07 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: There was a minor step increase in solar wind velocity
from ~450 to ~550 km/s around 16UT. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly neutral
to north-biased. There was a period of mild polarity fluctuation
about the time of the step increase in velocity, resulting in
an isolated active interval observed at all latitudes. Otherwise,
geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, with active to
minor storm periods observed at high latitudes only. Expect mostly
unsettled conditions today, with the chance of isolated active
periods, mainly at higher latitudes. As the coronal hole rotates
out of geoeffective range, conditions should decline to quiet
to unsettled on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed at low latitudes.
Moderate degradations observed at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity. Minor to moderate degradations in
HF conditions are possible at all latitudes during the next 2
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
with isolated daytime depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with extended
periods of localised degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 40 Isolated local degradations/near predicted monthly
values.
07 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed Equatorial region.
Intense spread-F observed at times Antarctic region. Moderate
depressions observed after local dawn today S Aus/NZ region.
Isolated localised degradations are possible at all latitudes
today. Expect improving conditions days two and three, with minor
degradations possible, mainly at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: A6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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