[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 27 10:45:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Region
582 has shown some development over the past 24 hours and has
the potential for further M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 2222 3333
Darwin 11 3222 3333
Townsville 10 2222 3334
Learmonth 10 2222 3333
Culgoora 8 1222 2333
Canberra 9 1222 3333
Hobart 9 2221 3333
Casey(Ant) 16 3432 2343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 1112 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 20 active
28 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 26 March and
is current for interval 26-28 March. Solar wind velocity showed
an upward trend over the second half of the UT day, and is at
500 km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the
IMF has fluctuated mildly about neutral, limiting geomagnetic
disturbance to isolated unsettled periods. A negative polarity
shift late in the UT day preceded a period of active to minor
storm conditions at high latitudes. Expect mostly unsettled conditions
on day one, with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods
especially at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions expected
on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels
may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the next few
days mainly at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with
isolated localised disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar 60 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally enhanced HF propagation conditions observed
throughout the region. Mild overnight spread-F conditions observed
S Aus/NZ regions, and spread-F observed generally in Antarctic
region. Equatorial/N Aus regions should experience continuing
good HF conditions. Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity
levels may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the
next few days mainly southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 83200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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