[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 24/2329UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M2/SF    0439UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar 
region 582 which has rotated around the north-east limb. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 1222
      Darwin               3   1110 1223
      Townsville           6   1310 1233
      Learmonth            4   1110 1232
      Culgoora             3   1110 1222
      Canberra             2   0010 1222
      Hobart               3   1110 1222
      Casey(Ant)           7   23-2 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1112 2210     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
27 Mar    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
28 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth is currently 
under the influence of a mildly elevated solar wind stream which 
is expected to produce slightly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels 
may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly normal to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    60    Mostly enhanced to depressed 5-15% at times. 
27 Mar    60    Depressed 5-15% at times to mostly enhanced. 
28 Mar    60    Depressed 5-15% at times to mostly enhanced. 
COMMENT: Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels 
may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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