[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Low

Flares: M1.5 observed at 2329UT from N15E77.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from a region 
rotating around on the north-east limb. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2200 0002
      Darwin               2   2201 0002
      Townsville           1   1201 0002
      Learmonth            2   2200 0002
      Culgoora             0   1100 0002
      Canberra             1   1200 0003
      Hobart               1   1200 0002
      Casey(Ant)           7   3331 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3322 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     6    Quiet 
26 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly normal to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed, and expected 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    74600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.