[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 28 09:01:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased after 1630UT from 600-900km/sec.
This probably indicates that the Earth has entered the anticipated
coronal hole wind stream. The recurrent pattern from this hole
has narrowed in recent rotations, suggesting that elevated wind
speed conditions may only persist for a few days. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mildly
southward over the past 24 hours. On disk solar regions have
been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours. A new solar region
is visible in US SEC SXI imagery on the solar south-east limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 2223 2335
Darwin 10 2223 2334
Townsville 11 2223 3335
Learmonth 11 3223 2335
Culgoora 10 2223 2335
Canberra 10 2223 2335
Hobart 11 2233 2335
Casey(Ant) 20 3444 3335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1021 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 20 active
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Mar 15 unsettled, chance of active periods early in
UT day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 26 March and
is current for interval 26-28 March. Geomagnetic activity forecast
increased for today due to rising solar wind speed conditions.
There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods in the next
24 hours. This activity is associated with a 27 day recurrent
pattern from a coronal hole wind stream. Activity expected next
two days, declining on 30 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions expected
at mid to high latitudes next two days, due to anticpated coronal
hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Initially good HF conditions expected today. Southern
Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to be mildly depressed after local
dawn on days 29 and 30 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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