[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 4 10:32:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. A weak
SE directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery, first visible
at 03/0218. This was probably a back-side event. Region 567 is
the only region of significant magnetic complexity on the visible
disk, and has shown minor growth over the past 24 hours. The
elevated solar wind stream due to the currently geoeffective
coronal hole should gradually decline over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 2214 3222
Darwin 9 2313 3223
Townsville 10 2214 3223
Learmonth 11 2214 3322
Culgoora 9 1214 3222
Canberra 12 2224 3322
Hobart 11 2224 3222
Casey(Ant) 14 ---4 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAR :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Hobart 121 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 4343 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 15 Unsettled chance of isolated active periods.
05 Mar 12 Unsettled
06 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slightly over the UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated mostly about nuetral. A period of negative bias in
Bz around the mid part of the UT day preceded an isolated period
of active geomagnetic conditions at all southern latitudes. Otherwise
geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with isolated
storm periods at high latitudes only. Expect similar conditions
today, again with the possibility of isolated active periods
should Bz polarity trend negative for an extended interval. A
gradual decline in solar wind parameters is anticipated over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed around local dawn today
at mid latitudes. Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes
expected today and possibly into day two due to recurrent coronal
hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Variable minor depressions around local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with isolated periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
05 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
at times over the next two days due to a recurrent coronal hole
wind stream. Night-time spread-F conditions observed S Aus region.
Spread-F conditions observed generally in Antarctic regions.
Equatorial/N Aus regions conditions should remain mostly near
normal. Expect gradually improving propagation conditions at
mid to high latitudes after day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 667 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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