[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 10:30:51 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. A minor
C-class flare was observed at 2150UT. This was optically correlated
with two point brightenings in Active Region 567 by the Culgoora
H-Alpha imager. A northern hemisphere extension to the currently
geoeffective coronal hole should maintain an elevated solar wind
stream for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 3243 3333
Darwin 9 2232 3223
Townsville 11 2232 3332
Learmonth 11 3232 3232
Culgoora 10 2232 3322
Canberra 14 2243 3333
Hobart 15 3343 3323
Casey(Ant) 23 4-54 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAR :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 76 (Active)
Canberra 118 (Major storm)
Hobart 150 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3243 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions today at low to mid latitudes
were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at southern
Australian latitudes. Active to minor storm period conditions
were observed at southern high latitudes. Solar wind speed remains
elevated at around 650 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field showed mild polarity fluctuations about neutral
over the UT day. The neutral Bz polarity has limited geomagnetic
disturbance to high latitudes, despite quite high solar wind
speeds. Expect similar conditions today. The coronal hole wind
stream effects should decline after day two, but a northern hemisphere
extension to the coronal hole will maintain slightly elevated
solar wind parameters into day three. There is a possibility
of active to storm conditions today should the Bz polarity trend
southward for an extended period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
for the next two days due to recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values with
extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
04 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
5-10% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
05 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
at times over the next two days due to a recurrent coronal hole
wind stream. Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region.
Spread-F conditions and overnight absorption observed generally
in Antarctic regions. Equatorial/N Aus regions conditions should
remain mostly near normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 649 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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