[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 2 10:15:26 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Active
Region 564 will rotate beyond the west solar limb today. There
are no other regions of significant magnetic complexity on the
visible disk. Region 567 has minor potential for C- to M-class
activity but has been mostly inert on the current rotation. A
northern hemisphere extension to the currently geoeffective coronal
hole should maintain an elevated solar wind stream for several
more days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to active, with storm
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 3223 3333
Darwin 11 3222 3333
Townsville 12 3223 3333
Learmonth 13 3222 4332
Culgoora 10 2223 2332
Canberra 14 3223 3433
Hobart 16 3333 3433
Casey(Ant) 17 4--3 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAR :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 69 (Active)
Canberra 122 (Severe storm)
Hobart 104 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 2335 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 25 active
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions today at low to mid latitudes
were mostly unsettled, with isolated active periods. Active to
storm period conditions were observed at high latitudes. Solar
wind speed approached 700 km/s towards the end of the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
mostly about neuttral, with a sustained period of mostly southward
bias in the latter part of the UT day. The neutral Bz polarity
has limited geomagnetic disturbance to high latitudes, despite
quite high solar wind speeds. Expect similar conditions today,
with the possibility of active to storm conditions should the
Bz polarity trend southward for an extended period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
for the next two to three days due to recurrent coronal hole
wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over the
UT day, with isolated periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-30% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
03 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
at times over the next three days due to a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream. Some significnt depressions observed at central
to southern Aus latitudes after local dawn today. Spread-F conditions
observed generally in Antarctic regions over the UT day. Equatorial/N
Aus regions conditions should remain mostly near normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 670 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 448000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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