[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 5 10:18:39 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 567 produced a number of B to low C-class flares
over the UT day. Newly developing region 569 in the SE solar
quadrant has shown rapid growth and some surging. Loop prominence
activity was observed behind the east limb, possibly the return
of old region 554. This region did not produce any major flare
activity on the previous rotation. The currently geoeffective
coronal hole is now rotating out of geoeffective range, with
coronal hole wind stream in gradual decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 2232 1111
Darwin 4 2221 1111
Townsville 5 2222 1112
Learmonth 4 2221 1112
Culgoora 4 1222 1111
Canberra 6 2232 1111
Hobart 5 1232 1111
Casey(Ant) 14 -443 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAR :
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15 3225 4342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
06 Mar 8 Quiet, isolated unsettled periods
07 Mar 8 Quiet, isolated unsettled periods
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined gradually until 11UT, then
more rapidly until the end of the UT day. There was a corresponding
decrease in Bz polarity fluctuations. These parameters indicate
a break in the previous high speed coronal hole wind stream effect.
Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods at low to mid latitudes and isolated active periods at
high latitudes. Solar wind parameters should continue to decline
today, with mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions expected on days
two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions and degradations expected today
at mid to high latitudes. HF conditions gradually improving on
days two and three as coronal hole wind stream effects slowly
decline.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 45 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions.
Spread-F conditions observed generally in Antarctic regions.
Expect variable daytime depressions today Aus/NZ regions, especially
S Aus/NZ, with propagation conditions gradully improving on days
two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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