[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 25 09:34:39 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been low at around 350km/sec over
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward for the first six hours of the UT
day, then becoming neutral. Solar wind speed may increase moderately
over coming days due to a weak coronal hole wind stream effect.
Solar region 635 in the solar south-west quadrant produced a
C2 xray flare at 0630 UT, this flare was associated with a weak
Type II radio event (shock speed of around 550-580km/sec) observed
at both Learmonth and Culgoora Solar Observatories. No LASCO
(space based coronagraph) imagery was available to confirm a
coronal mass ejection, however, although well positioned, this
was a minor event and only a weak shock arrival is possible first
half of the UT day on 27 June. Sunspot groups are mostly
located in the western solar hemisphere, with the eastern solar
hemisphere almost spotless, this may mean that solar radio flux
values will decline as the western spot groups rotate off disk
over the next 3 to 4 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 1221 1000
Darwin 4 2221 2001
Townsville 3 1221 2001
Learmonth 3 1221 1000
Culgoora 3 1221 1001
Canberra 3 1221 1000
Hobart 3 1221 1000
Casey(Ant) 2 0221 1000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUN :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1011 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 12 Unsettled
26 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected
in coming days due to coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for today. Mildy
degraded HF communications conditions may be experienced around
late 25-26 June at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values, spread F
observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days, with possible minor degradations and depressions
over Southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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