[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: A transient was observed in the solar wind commencing 
around 12 UT on 25 June. Solar wind speeds are expected to mildly 
increase over the next few days due to an anticipated weak coronal 
hole solar wind stream. Solar region 635 has the chance of producing 
M-class flare activity before leaving the visible solar disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0100 1011
      Darwin               4   0300 2021
      Townsville           2   0110 2012
      Learmonth            1   0000 2011
      Culgoora             1   1000 2011
      Canberra             0   0000 1010
      Hobart               0   0000 1010
      Casey(Ant)           1   0100 0121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2131 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods. 
27 Jun    15    Unsettled to active 
28 Jun    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected 
in coming days due to coronal hole wind stream, resulting in 
isolated active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for today. Mildy 
degraded HF communications conditions may be experienced around 
26-27 June at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days, with possible minor depressions for southern 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    31100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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