[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 24 09:36:06 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:**YELLOW** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been low at 320km/sec over the
UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed may increase moderately over coming days due to a weak
coronal hole wind stream effect. Solar region 635 in the solar
south-west quadrant produced a C2 xray flare at 0605UT. This
flare was reported by Learmonth Solar Observatory as a probable
small hyder flare. Hyder flares are where some of the erupting
solar material falls back into the solar disk. This may indicate
that a small filament may have partially erupted from the solar
disk. This could not be confirmed at the time of issue of this
report. This event was a relatively minor event and no Type II
radio sweep was reported with the flare. No LASCO imagery
was available, so it is assumed that no mass ejection escaped
the Sun. Solar region 634 has been reported by Big Bear US solar
Observatory to be in decline. Isolated M class flares are possible
from solar region 635.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 0010 0001
Darwin 1 0010 0112
Townsville 1 1110 0012
Learmonth 0 0000 0001
Culgoora 0 0010 0010
Canberra 0 0000 0000
Hobart 0 0000 0000
Casey(Ant) 2 1111 1001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1001 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 12 Unsettled
26 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected in coming
days due to coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for today. Mildy
degraded HF communications conditions expected to begin 25-26
June at high latitudes due to coronal hole wind stream induced
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Some spread F observed second half of the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days, with possible minor degradations and depressions
over Southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 42300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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