[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 15 09:49:45 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
634(N13E59) and new region 635(S08E69) produced low level
C-flares. The solar wind speed remained between 300 and
350 km/s (approx.) until around 0800UT and then gradually
rose to above 500 km/s. This increase in the solar wind
speed seems to have been caused by the anticipated coronal
hole effect. The solar wind speed is approximately 450 km/s
at the time of this report. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to continue for the next few days. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained negative (upto approximately -10nT) until
1300UT and then showed minor to mild fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value. Regions 634 and 635 hold potential
for isolated M-class activity. The solar activity is expected
to remain mostly low during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 1122 3222
Darwin 7 2122 2232
Townsville 7 2122 2322
Learmonth 7 1012 3232
Culgoora 5 1122 2222
Canberra 7 1023 3222
Hobart 8 1123 3221
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUN :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1011 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The anticipated coronal hole effect seems to have
started. The geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels
during the next three days. The effect may be intermittent.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on low and mid latitudes during the next three days
with possibility of intermittent minor degradations on mid
latitudes. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
are likely at high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 45% with periods of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
16 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
17 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next 3 days. However, minor depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are possible,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 34900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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