[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 14 10:00:21 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1156UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate today. Region
634(N12E72) produced an M1.0 flare at 1156UT, a C4.1 flare at
0444UT and a B8.9 flare at 0242UT. The solar wind speed
remained nearly constant at about 320 km/s until 0600UT, then
showed a quick rise to 350 km/s and remained at this level until
around 1600UT. The solar wind speed then showed fluctuations and
rose to 380 km/s. It has started to decrease now and is at
340 km/s (approx.) at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained constant
near the normal value by approximately 0700UT, then showed minor
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value. Bz has been staying
slightly shouthwards for approximately the last six hours. Another
active region is rotating onto the disk in the south-eastern quarter.
Region 634 holds potential for M-class activity. The solar activity
is expected to remain low to moderate during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 0022 0102
Darwin 2 0012 1113
Townsville 3 0122 0112
Learmonth 2 0022 0102
Culgoora 1 0011 0102
Canberra 1 0021 0002
Hobart 0 0011 0002
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1231 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
15 Jun 15 Quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
16 Jun 17 Mostly unsettled. Quiet and Active periods possible.
COMMENT: A small coronal hole is taking the geoeffective position.
The characteristics of the coronal hole suggest that it may or
may not strengthen the solar wind stream that is to reach the
earth from 15 June i.e. the effect may be intermittent. The geomagnetic
activity, therefore, may rise on 15 and 16 June depending on
the extent of effect of this coronal hole on the solar wind stream
and the direction of the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 24 hours with possibility of minor to moderate
degradations during the following two days, especially at mid
and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 55% with periods of depressions
and significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about
5 to 10%.
15 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 43 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 24 hours. Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions during the following two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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